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Name: Dakao
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Saturday, September 10, 2011

Life-efficiency revisited

Rather than engage in unproductive cycles of blame-excuse, I found the best way for me to improve my productivity was to make my peace with how I spend my time.

After vital activities you can't skip (sleep, eating, showers), everyone has 100 hrs a week (out of a total 168 hrs) to spend on all activities.

Most of us work or go to school for 30-60 hrs a week (not vital, but still a major obligation). We spend the rest of that 100 hours on a combination of personal growth activities (hobbies, training, relationships, etc.) and "down-time" activities (napping, reading, movies, clubbing, dancing, bar-hopping).

Oddly enough, just like in school with a stern and unforgiving teacher, you're doing poorly if you are only active for 60 or fewer hours a week. You're doing well if you use 70-80 hrs actively, and you're a total productivity machine if you use 90 hrs.

Very few people manage to use all 100 hrs for "work" -- it's essentially a hyperbolic function with a limit at 100. Most of us need a fair bit of down-time -- usually 2-3 hrs a day. Even most driven people need about an hour a day of down-time to rest and mentally digest what they've been doing. You'll note that people who "work" 60, 80, or even 100 hrs a week aren't really working solid. They're on shift, but they find ways to imperfectly catch a little rest or personal time (check e-mail, surf the web, bullshit in the breakroom, smoke breaks, etc. beyond the federally mandated 2 15-min breaks and 1-hr lunch).

(Efficiency while on shift at work/school is a sub-topic for later.)

Being "on shift" includes saying you're doing your homework, sitting at your desk, moving around the warehouse, going to class, etc.

I've observed that even very dedicated and passionate workers usually cap out around 75% efficiency for 80 hrs a week. Typical workers/slackers are about 25% efficient for the time they put in (25-50 hrs / wk). Normal to hard workers are about 50%+ efficient for 30-60 hrs on shift.

On those days when you're mad busy and can't answer the phone or check e-mail, you're probably hitting a local peak of 70-90% for the day/week, but that's part of the reason why you feel so tapped out at the end of the day/week.

Really devoted / obsessive people (da Vinci, Einstein, etc.) sustain that level of efficiency for a meaningful portion of their lives, not just occasionally or by happenstance.

These numbers are very ballpark b/c I haven't done any rigorous studies on it.

Long-term (i.e. over an entire lifetime of ~80 years), your discretionary time / day mostly reverts back to the mean. This means you can skip out on sleep, showers, eating, etc. for a while (weeks, months, even years), but the consequences will catch up on you, and you will likely burn out and overcompensate on the far end. Anyone who successfully structures their life long-term to squeeze extra time out of this "essential maintenance" must be very driven, and probably very anti-social (whether by smell or impatience).


Now, look at all your obligations and things you "have" to do. If you really feel you have to, accept those things as necessary and don't complain about them. Stressing about it won't make them go away, and it'll only degrade your mood and performance. Some of these can be identified as cultural or socio-economic status issues (holding two jobs, family / religious duties). Others are contingently necessary -- commuting, cooking, exercise, emotional / social / mental self-care. Per the concept of total cost of ownership (TCO), you can accept that these aren't literally work being performed, but they are necessary for your work to be performed. So you can call it TCO productivity.

For those activities that aren't actually necessary, you will likely spend a long time struggling with yourself to even admit that they're not needed. Then you'll spend more time struggling to train yourself or train others around you to accept that you aren't performing these tasks anymore. This also covers cultural or SES issues -- accepted conventions of hanging out (in your neighborhood, at bars, lounges, yacht clubs, etc.), watching entertainment (TV, movies, theater, UFC fights, artist performances), as well as lack of knowledge and education about opportunities (e.g. people who sit on their porch all day drinking beers, playing Xbox, etc. only b/c they don't know what else there is to do).
These are GRAY AREAS b/c these activities in small doses provide self-care opportunities. Everyone needs a few hours of down-time to rest (physically, mentally) and digest/absorb what they've been working on and to continue working effectively. The same is true for a minimum of social interaction for most people.

The trouble is that many people indulge and ENJOY significantly more down-time and socializing than they NEED, and then confuse the two in their minds. i.e. "I need this time [2 TV shows a night] for myself!" Maybe you need one or both TV shows, maybe you don't. Maybe the 30 mins you spent on the Internet was enough.

The only real crime is if you find or are introduced to a new and potentially positive / productive activity, but b/c it requires leaving your comfort zone, you choose to turn a blind eye and retreat back into your familiar behavior patterns b/c they're safe and require no effort or risk. It's not a crime for which anyone else will take you to task -- you are the only victim of your own inaction.
After you've separated out and consciously identified your three categories of time:

- Absolutely necessary obligations (INCLUDING vital down-time and necessary socializing)
- Time-wasters (obligations you've been talked into, extra entertainment and socializing)
- Free time available

You are then free to work on deliberately eliminating or minimizing your time-wasters to make more free time for activities.

Ideally, you will be able to spend all your time guilt-free b/c you now recognize and choose to spend your time on necessary and/or time-wasting activities. It's your choice whether and how much you cut out the time-wasters. If you want them, accept that you "need" that down-time, then go enjoy them. If you don't want them, don't just complain. Change your behavior and find other ways to spend your time.

This is the first part of Tim Ferriss' thesis in his 4-Hour Work Week book. It's the hardest part to do b/c it requires developing very blunt self-analysis and awareness.

Over months and years, as you allocate your base time usage more satisfactorily, you will find fewer opportunities to optimize your time.

Then it'll be on to the second part of Ferriss' thesis -- optimizing your activities.

If you can find 2-3 activities that are all productive, but at least 1 or 2 of them (preferably all of them!) are good recreation / down-time / social time, then you can rest and switch gears while still doing something useful.

e.g. on my best weeks, I spend 25 actual hrs on 3 jobs, at 80%+ efficiency. One is actually enjoyable (geeky number-crunching), one is more than half enjoyable (ditto, but it feels a bit more like work), and the last and least one is a real grind. All three are good rest breaks from each other.

I spend 4-5 hrs on driving for 7 days' work and fun. (the benefits of living near your most common tasks)

I spend 15 hrs on training and 2-5 hrs on social time that helps build community in my training interests.

I spend 10-20 hrs on networking and back-office support work for my training.

I spend 5-15 hrs a week on communication that's a combination of fun, training, community-building, and work.

I spend 3-5 hrs a week on plain goofing off (movies, music browsing) and I'm 100% comfortable with even twice that for self-care time.

I spend 3 hours on groceries, and about 5-8 hrs a week cooking.

(actually eating, and showering, are already accounted for)

So by my estimate, my best weeks are 95% efficient. They don't always happen. Overall, I'd guess I'm about 50% at my laziest worst (estimated loss of 45 hrs of work/chores). So I'm about 75% efficient on average, long-term. Note that a stricter definition of "work efficiency" would only count 50-60 hours of my activities as actual work; by that metric, I'm only 50-60% work-efficient. I know myself well enough to say I could sustain 70% work-efficiency for 1-3 months, but then I burn out hard, and my productivity craters for a week or two. So I'm very happy being able to sustain long-term 75% TCO productivity or 50-60% strict work-efficiency.

By comparison, a typical person's week might have 45 hrs' work at about 55% efficiency (15-35 actual hours of work; they'll spend a lot of the down-time for paying bills, surfing the web, procrastinating, doing unnecessary things, etc.).

10-15 hrs of going out (to eat, being with friends, social time, etc.).

7-10 hrs for total work/fun commuting.

5-10 hrs of reading / web browsing (news, fun, social time, etc.).

5-10 hrs for TV, movies, other entertainment.

5 hrs of cooking/groceries.

5 hrs for exercise.

I'd call that 75% TCO productivity (including 10 hrs for required self-care/social down-time) or 25% work-efficiency.


A really motivated person should easily be able to re-allocate 20-25 hrs weekly for various personal hobbies, volunteer activities, etc.:

5 from social going out time
5 from reading time
5 from entertainment time
5 from exercise (I don't recommend this, since exercise is pretty key to feeling good and remaining efficient in your productivity times)
5 from work -- leave on time, no excuses! (Not always a good career move...)

Another 5-10 hrs can be squeezed from cooking, going out, commute streamlining, and remaining entertainment. But that's pretty difficult.

 


Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Love. Loneliness. Lust.

When we stew in our solitude, whether by choice or circumstance, the mind builds the most fantastic houses of cards either to indulge or entomb our emotions. If you lose someone dear to you, you try to occupy your time, set aside your grief, just to keep moving and stay functional. Or perhaps you keep moving in order to give yourself time to cope with the loss and sadness.

Your entire life is a continuous process of association formation. When relationships end, all the associations you formed during that time, the ways you got used to forming new associations -- all experience an abrupt tectonic fault. In the best of situations, whether because you saw it coming, had time to adapt, or your partner let you down gently or earlier (rather than later), the break happens as a series of smaller, more manageable tremors, or at least hasn't built up as much pressure as it might have if you'd hung on in a nonviable partnership. Still, the china rattles and you lose a few pieces. A couple things fall off the shelves and walls. Your belief construct is shaken. Nothing is left untouched, no matter how gentle the change. Things won't ever be the same again, and all you can do is set about picking up the pieces.

When major life changes strike, challenging and upsetting some things or everything you thought you knew to be right or reliable, you find yourself grasping for something -- anything -- familiar. You're drowning, and you'll take a swipe at whatever nearby flotsam, timber, or life preserver you can find.

It's the animal instinct to survive, lashing out in whatever way it can, and it is not always neat or civil. This can cause some inconveniences when we walking wounded venture out to seek solace and respite from our internal turmoil.

I was bringing my lentils to a simmer (for a chili dish -- not metaphorically). As I watched the pot lid bump and rattle from the venting steam, I realized how much the edible pulse (or legume, if you will) and I had in common.

Our feelings sometimes boil over, scorching on the stovetop. The reek of it can be unsettling to those around us, because it reminds them of their own past or potential problems -- and risk-averse humans (i.e. everyone) dislike being put in close proximity to discomfort. It's not their problem (yet, or this time), so they don't want to deal with it.

Thankfully, our friends who are either empathic or good cooks can catch the first whiff of trouble, and help us by whisking the pot off the burner -- quickly and hopefully letting it settle back to an emotional simmer. They stir it for us in conversation, sharing our almost or slightly burnt bits so that it all evens out before we ruin the dish by blowing up big or doing something truly stupid.

And as time passes, we rebuild our constructs of belief. At first, the gaps are large, raw, and obvious. For a long while after, the patches show plainly. And as they weather and are covered over by the growth of new experiences, we start to forget they were ever there; other people don't notice anymore. Occasionally, months or years afterward, we'll stumble over a long-forgotten memory association, and we'll scrape raw a glimpse of the old scar. The greater the original loss, the deeper and longer it lingers.
But that's what life is all about -- cycles of growth and loss. For better or for worse, everything you experience makes you.


Monday, June 13, 2011

Remembering what wasn't

Amidst the sound and fury of our glorious lives, who notices the keening note of what once was almost?

No words, no lamentations -- there are none to pine for what cannot be missed.

Many paths will lead you to yours, though you only ever notice one.


Wednesday, March 09, 2011

Machine minds

we have exponential computing / research effort in a race against exponential population growth. The article above gives a population estimate. Here's info for a computing estimate:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=what-is-the-memory-capacity

http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instructions_per_second
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/02/world-computer-data/

http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=525801


http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20081003101419AA9NNFl
http://www.top500.org/

Putting Moravec's article together with current computing, and ONLY in comparing raw numbers, 1 petaflop should provide enough computing power to crudely run 10 human minds.

Another article I didn't link to estimated the mind at 100 quadrillion instructions / sec (100 petaflops). The wide range of estimates is due to our neurons each connecting with up to 1000 other neurons. Our brain's operation is too big for us to currently wrap our brains around. :P

At the same time, one human brain might theoretically store 2.5 petabytes (2500 terabytes). Think RAM, not hard disk.

So the fastest computer on the top500 list runs 2.57 petaflops, peak. It has 2.3 terabytes of memory.

This means it can think anywhere from 2.5% to 2500% of 1 human mind. It has approx 0.1% of an estimated human's memory capacity.

At least one issue with this: architectural differences -- neural nets are far from practical or effective yet. These articles all indicate that these are very rough estimates b/c we don't really know how the mind does everything it does (yet?).

Furthermore, software is a big question. We don't even know how memories are really stored and handled.


So... we have anywhere from currently feasible to 12 years for raw computing power to approximate the human mind. 20 years to achieve equivalency of human memory. It'll be easily twice that long before we see that much power in common usage (how many mainframes do you have in *your* neighborhood clinic?). Software and interface development is a whole other issue. Add in cultural mores and taboos about this ultimately dehumanizing (term used in a neutral sense here) concept.


Saturday, October 02, 2010

The mother of all food cost analyses

Healthy food is only more expensive if we are not selective in our purchases and/or we maintain current typical eating habits! On the other hand, if we stick to a budget and eat/buy only what we need, we can realize both healthy and tasty eating.

I buy the fruit and vegetables I like to eat, with 4-6 oz of meat (beef, buffalo, lamb, salmon, pork, etc.) per meal. Add in milk and OJ, and that's it. Back when I was briefly unemployed, I made do with $40 / week for months, and still only average $70 / week now if I reasonably indulge in salmon, etc. My latest round of cooking -- broiled ginger tilapia and asparagus with quinoa, sauteed bell peppers and onions, averaged $2.77 per meal.

Lean ground free-range buffalo chili with no beans in, plus fresh green beans, costs about $2.40 per meal.

My workaday meals aren't nearly so fancy, still taste great, and cost about $1.50 each.

Bulk whole oats (available at most higher end grocery stores for $1.50 / lb) with soy milk, a touch of honey, and a handful of fresh or frozen berries for breakfast, $1.


Bear in mind the following cost analyses are all for approx 300-cal meals, meant for consumption 6-7 times a day. If your schedule doesn't suit, then double the size for 3 meals a day: still only approx $3-$5.50 a meal.

Couple this with getting rid of drinking anything you pay for (other than milk and a little juice), and the total food budget starts looking pretty good. Picking up a breakfast egg and sausage biscuit with coffee, getting a burger and soda for lunch, then rounding it out with a casual dinner at Chili's = $25 / day or $175 / week ($9100 / yr if you eat out 100%) -- precisely 2.5 times my "healthy" and generous weekly budget of $70.

If you don't like these numbers, my online research indicates that American males typically spend $3.63 / home-cooked meal, and spend +$20.82 more when going out to eat (counting lunch and dinner), or roughly $7250 a year.


What about time costs? I average 4 mins / meal to prep, plus avg 4 mins to cook (I cook 4-8 meals at a time), for .5 hr / day. That's 1.5 hrs / wk of actual work, plus 1.5 hrs / wk of waiting for food. Grocery shopping takes about an hour if I know what I want, or up to 2 hrs in a week if I'm casual about multiple trips or aisle-browsing.

Going out takes 1.5 hrs a day, or 6  hrs / wk of roundtrip driving to food and 4 hrs of waiting for food.

Weekly 4-5 hrs at home vs. 10 hrs going out -- it's a personal choice in trade-offs. Going out is fun and social, with a change of atmosphere and setting that we can't get sitting at home. But hey, potluck / family dinner parties are fun and social too. :)


Think my numbers are too good to be true? Am I leaving something out? Let's do a little research and drill down further.

Some counterpoint articles that I don't agree with:
http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/a-high-price-for-healthy-food/
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveMoney/IsEatingOutCheaperThanCooking.aspx

The most egregious error the MSN article commits lies in comparing solid gold apples to slightly bruised bananas. Not everyone is an Atlanta-based multimedia director with no spare time and lots of disposable cash. Spending $30 on organic local produce and cooking one meal at a time is absurd and flies in the face of what I and plenty of other writers out there have figured out about eating in. And no, MSN, eating in doesn't mean buying commercially prepared frozen chicken wings. If it comes in a box and with reheating instructions, you have lost the point of cooking at home.

To be fair, there are a number of Houston restaurants that narrow the gap for healthy, affordable eating out. Check out Mandy's trainer blog at:

http://modyourbody.wordpress.com/

In addition to her luscious salad listings, she's also found that Thai Spice (green curry lunch special), El Rey (tacos, etc. in addition to her aforementioned killer chicken salad with fish substitution), and Les Givrals (Vietnamese banh mi sandwiches (yes, redundant, I know), sushi) are all healthy and affordable. You'll still pay $8-10 for 500-600 calories, but it sure ain't $32.60 per dinner.

And one that I do agree with:
http://www.thesimpledollar.com/2010/01/13/trimming-the-average-budget-eating-out/

Eggs illustrate a typical shopping decision we may find ourselves making between normal and potentially healthier organic choices. They cost about $1.30 / $2.60 / $3.90 for regular / cage free / free range organic. Production costs are about $.60 / dozen regular, or $.90 / dozen free range organic; for the latter, you are paying a premium above and beyond a mere 2.17 retail multiplier. With the given multiplier, free range organic eggs should only cost about $1.95. As things stand, I would be paying 4.33 times production cost for free range organic.

source: http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2010/09/08/study-cage-free-eggs-cost-40-percent-more/

Does this mean we should vilify the evil egg industry for bilking us of our hard-earned scratch? Or commend them for a production and cost structure that rewards producers for making healthier, arguably more sustainable choices at price points that different consumer segments can and will tolerate?

I digress for a moment to point out that while I choose only cage free, even the $4 eggs are not overly burdensome on my lifestyle as an average American. At a healthy maximum of 6 eggs weekly, that's $2 / wk, vs. $.65 for normal production eggs.

source: http://preventdisease.com/news/articles/eggs_good_for_health.shtml

Whether or not you believe in the marginal health benefits, and whether they're worth the extra $1.35 / wk, we can probably all agree that we are talking about pocket change, literally.

Most other normal versus organic purchases are similarly priced, with a 25% price premium being typical. Given a typical basket of goods, all that organic pocket change can add up. But how much does it really cost?

Taking current USDA grocery costs into account for me as a 19-50 male, that's a liberal weekly cost of $76.30 for regular groceries vs. estimated $106.82 (+$30.52) for full organic switch or $91.56 (+$15.26) for half organic switch.

(I feel pretty good that my actual spending is around $70 / wk even with my 50% organic switch, or estimated $3640-$4680 (high end for a worst case $90 / wk, for a generous margin of error).)

Annually, the typical numbers work out to $3966 / *$5552 (+$1586) / $4759 (+$793) for regular / full organic / half organic.

Americans are estimated to eat out 2.8 to (extrapolated) 2.9 times a week at $32.60 for dinner only. I'm estimating half that ($16.30) for lunch, also 2.8-2.9 times / wk (or half that cost for twice the lunches at fast food chains, which can be reasonably expected for some people). Both $ numbers seem high to me, but perhaps I'm just cheap. :P

So for 5.6-5.8 meals / week, we may spend ~$139.37, or $7246.98 / yr. That still leaves 15.3 meals to be paid for in groceries. If the USDA's grocery estimate is for 21 meals / wk, that's an average meal cost of $3.63 / $5.07 / $4.36 in 0% / 100% / 50% organic groceries. If that's only for 15.3 meals / wk, grocery per-meal costs are $4.99 / $6.95 / $5.97.

Bear in mind the average American weighs 17 lbs more than "ideal". Given that 3500 calories roughly equal 1 lb of fat, this is equivalent to consuming daily 163 calories more than you need for a solid year (or an excess 82 cal / day for 2 years, etc.). Also mind that one 12-oz soda has 155 calories.

sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organic_food#Cost
http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/usdafoodcost-home.htm
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14715218
http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/22/pf/meals_averagecost/
http://www.gallup.com/poll/102919/average-american-weighs-pounds-more-than-ideal.aspx
http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/calories/WT00011
http://www.calorie-counter.net/calories-in-soda.htm
http://www.weightlossforall.com/food-calories-list.htm

Whichever of my restaurant dining estimates you use, I think it's clear that sensible home cooking beats the pants off eating out in terms of both money and time.

Notice that even the full-bore organic shopping only costs $1586 more than base groceries yearly; meals cost $5.07 each, or +$1.44 / meal over the base cost of $3.63 / meal. By comparison, the additional marginal cost of going out to eat is +$20.82 over the $ cost of a home-cooked meal.

If you're looking to cut costs, start with the most material, big-ticket categories. The only categories comparable in size to food budget are rent/mortgage, car loan, and utility bills. None of them are nearly as discretionary or easy to change in the short term as your going-out food expense. Average apt rent + utils in Houston is $820 / mo; you could probably save $500-$1000 / yr without compromising too much on your lifestyle. Average 2005 housing costs were $1264 / mo + $223 / mo in property taxes + $210 utilities (estimated); changing this would be much more difficult than shopping for apartments, plus you might have to make significant location sacrifices in order to find a cheaper place. Car payments are about on par with apt relocation for difficulty. The average American pays $378 over 63 months (as of 2005) for a car. Median household income in the US is $52,029 (for a household of 2.59 people). If you're considerably out of line with these numbers (too much spending, too little income), think on whether your spending is worth it.

In short, eating out is probably going to be your biggest, easiest budget fix, if you're looking to save a little money for new purchases, vacations, or savings.

sources:
http://www.rent.com/rentals/texas/
http://www.citytowninfo.com/places/texas/houston/mortgage
http://www.finalcall.com/artman/publish/article_2267.shtml

You could do other things to save money. Setting your A/C at 80 instead of 76 in Houston's summertime (and a corresponding lowering during the winter) could save you about $200 / yr. You could also cut down on movies ($7.95 x 5 movies = $40 / yr), Starbucks mocha frappucinos ($4 x 2 drinks / wk x 50 wks = $400 / yr), or music CDs ($12 x 5.6 albums / yr = $67 / yr). Even Bank of America used to charge me more per week in maintenance fees! ($6 / mo, or $1.40 / wk)

But again, all these ancillary cost-cutting measures won't get you as much in savings as not eating out.

sources:
http://www.chacha.com/question/how-many-movies-does-the-average-person-watch-in-a-year
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/may/05/business/la-fi-ct-tickets-20100505
http://www.marketingcharts.com/topics/demographics/us-cd-purchases-down-as-downloads-up-but-favorite-artist-cds-do-well-312/

I'm not saying we all need to run out and live in a cave, eating sticks and leaves. My purpose is to put our massive (or not) food expenditures in context with the rest of our lifestyle.

My disclaimer is that there is no wrong way to eat -- if you eat and you're still alive and functional the next day,  you ate "right" (successfully avoided bad meat, drinking clorox, and other obvious "wrong" eating patterns). There're only different levels of eating well. :D Just take out bad stuff and add good stuff one item per week, until we find what we personally enjoy eating. Then we think about doing a bit better next week and next month.

If we overeat, yes, it's pricey.

If we buy organic stuff with wild abandon -- like asparagus and wild-caught king salmon out of season, with shiitake mushrooms -- then yes, it's pricey.

If we continue to pay exhorbitant amounts for excessive quantities of coffee-flavored cream and sugar (e.g. 300-600 calories in the misnamed "venti" (20) 24-oz cup -- as many as one should have in a medium-sized meal, or 15-30% of your daily calories!), or $2.50 restaurant fountain sodas, then yes, it's pricey.

But there's no cause for griping about the cost of food. There are many (cheap) ways to eat well!



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